Corona Pandemic is not
going to change the Economics only for few times, This new Coronamics will rule the
economy till the medicine for this and fear for bio war does not stop. To start
with this Coronamics let’s discuss Some Fact About Corona Pandemic. There
are no sales except essential goods means no movement in most of
Goods & Services hence GDP almost Nil and Growth is Negative YoY. Almost
all Business is facing gross loss except for the essential goods industry.
supply chain last leg is closed. World Bank said GDP is Zero for India and
Entire Asia. Next year the growth rate predicted at 1.8 and It will take 3
years with a high growth rate of 8.5 to reach a 7% rate. worldwide 160 Crores
unemployment predicted. In India 11 Crores MSMEs are affected. All government
targets and ratings are finished. All budget allocations are not being
fulfilled. Per Day Loss is 4.5 Bn $ in Lockdown one and at top aviation and
hospitality is badly affected and at leg barber and salon is finished.
These facts give us
negative vibes but still, there is a lot of hopes and positive vibes for India.
In India as per its size and complex structure of populations spread rate is
slow compared to the rest World. Though infection is not tested and measurable
but death is very less and which is measurable means death rate is very much
under control even we are unaware of the infection at large due to lack of
testing, hence Indians immune system is having well-fighting strength. For the
economy and society, it is time for bounce-back who left in the development
race, and this crisis created space for leadership development. A new reset
economy will give more chances to a backward and deprived population and this
is the time to grab this opportunity. Decentralization of Skill will create
economic activities at the town level and across India equal development will
be possible and economic fabric will be strong. Fired People will start Self
Employment and they will create opportunities for Business Support Consultant
Like Cas, Advocates, and other service providers. Banks & Financial
Institution will be forced to give loans and debt because they have not done
disbursement during this period and disbursing from them will be increased to
achieve their own target. The government will Give Many Packages to MSMEs and
Affected Sector. Government Purchases and expenditure will be increased. India
can be Outsourcing HUB and listing is already in the process in which work can
be done as a work from home and which can be in the hybrid system and where going
location is required, it will reduce the cost of operation and increase the
profit. Reducing Salary and Lockdown has created a saving habit and distraction
from lavish expenses. Globally,
buyers have already shifted to India to source ceramics, home, fashion, and
lifestyle goods and now this speed will grow up. The drive to look for
alternatives internationally can be beneficial for India to enter multiple
trade channels as a supplier of raw materials and manufactured goods. In
changing world dynamics and the New International Supply Chain Model, India is
having Important Place. India is able to Invite Industries from China and
around a thousand foreign manufacturers to want to relocate their production to
India. They look at India as an alternative to China. Reportedly, at least 300
are already talking with the Indian government for production in a wide range
of sectors, including electronics, medicine, and textiles. Infrastructural
development around manufacturing facilities will boost to local economy and
employment. This year, the government has proposals to hike import duties on
more than 300 products, and the Indian government is already exploring
alternative countries for over 1,000 items to replace China as their supplier.
the pandemic has instilled a shift in consumer psychology, and the outcome will
be an altered behavior towards the market, especially China and its products.
However, before India leaps to fill this global void, it needs to cut the
shackles of its dependencies. For a long time, China has been at the top of
India’s import list for a variety of items. It is no denying that, given the
pandemic, the supply has been hit hard. But the Indian government is already
exploring alternative countries for over 1,000 items to replace China as their
supplier. After this most of the budget allocation will shift to Human Assets
Development and healthcare Infrastructure will be built.
Post-COVID 19 sector-wise growth will replace many
negatives and fill the created gap. Post-COVID 19 Agro Economy will be a leader,
now people have understood the value of necessary foods, preventive health
markets (Ayurveda, Yoga, and Yunani Homeopath will have an Opportunity) to
regain the place in the market. Decentralization of Economic Activities will
increase Micro Sector and will create new and more strong economic fabric.
Health Infrastructure and E-Commerce Logistic Sector will increase. Aviation, hospitality, and entertainment sector will be affected where Mass Gathering
happens but the people will turn to other media of entertainment and the
industry will move towards that side. Yes, the aviation and high-class hospitality
sector will take time to convince the consumer Post-COVID 19 and will take time
to get reshape again.
If we see World level changed dynamics China
Dependency may be ends, attack on China either by Nuclear Bomb or Silent attack
to break China may happen, new countries will come to take place in the top 10 economy of the World. UN and WHO Role will be reviewed
To gain the benefits of the above positive hopes
the Government Action is Required. Government Buying to be Increased to 50%
from MSMEs and from this 50% buying from Micro should be 25%. Policy for MSME
to be made in three-part Micro, Small & Medium separately and headed by
three differences Cell. The government should effort to make sales possible the last
leg and increase consumption. Review of Bank’s Profit is required and reduction
in bank interest and bank charges is the demand of time. Moratorium Term to be
increased with less interest rate. All Infrastructure Expenses to be Increased.
All passed budget and government expenditure to be reviewed, recalculated, and
reallocated again as the structure and period for the budget application have been
materially changed.
At a personal level following action and
opportunities, we can explore. We can execute and achieve our long pending
health recovery plan. We can complete all the work which was planned and
pending because of office going or work or business load. We can now do expense
restructuring and reduction of cost to the extent it is possible. For middle
class can take shelter of this and plan much lavish and unnecessary
expenditure. We can restructure the work according to lockdown Guidelines and
Post Corona Economic Environment. To fight this Coronamics we should open all
the limitations, shyness, and ego in Business Strategy. By application of this
Coronamics, we can defeat the enemy of economy post-COVID 19.
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